Croatia achieved growth in all key emission markets

first_imgThe Main Office of the Croatian National Tourist Board hosted a meeting between the Minister of Tourism Gari Cappelli and the directors of the Croatian National Tourist Board abroad from the Ministry of Tourism, and this was also the first meeting of Minister Cappelli with the directors of the CNTB’s missions. expectations and main goals in the coming years.Thus, the Minister said that Croatia is a tourist destination that achieves good results, but also a destination that still has untapped potential, especially in the form of less developed tourist areas on the sea and the continent, which must be the focus of future activities. “I would like to hear the thoughts of the directors of the representative offices, because we must be open to improving the system. Our goal is to involve the representative offices in the work of the national organization as much as possible, and experience and knowledge from abroad are valuable and worth our weight in gold.”, Stressed Minister Cappelli.”Given the very high capacity utilization during the peak season, next year we must put even more emphasis on the pre- and post-season, or those tourist products that may be the main motives for arrival and generators of stronger tourist traffic in these periods. These are primarily products such as health and congress tourism and nautical. The Ministry of Tourism has a number of planned measures through which we will encourage positive development processes with the aim of achieving the desired qualitative and quantitative steps in the field of tourism product, and we are pleased that the Government of the Republic of Croatia has recognized the importance of the tourism sector. , increased the budget of our ministry, which was increased by 6 percent compared to the funds from this year”, Said Minister Cappelli, adding that he expects a strong contribution from the director of the representative office in achieving the stated goals.Situation in emitting markets                      The working part of the meeting included the reports of the directors of representative offices on the situation in the emitting markets and the expected results of the 2017 season.In Poland, for example, Croatia has become the absolute leader this year as the most visited destination. From the Slovenian market, there was an increase of as much as 16% in overnight stays, while in the Austrian market, Croatia became a more visited destination than, so far the most visited Italy. 7% more overnight stays were realized from Germany, and from the United Kingdom, for the first time, an increase of over 20% was realized, and the same is expected next year, considering the newly announced flights.From Hungary, there was an increase of 10% or more than 2,7 million overnight stays, and in the United States, Croatia is one of the most popular in addition to Cuba and Iceland.emerging “ a destination with 12% growth in overnight stays. Russia also achieved a positive result of 6% after a number of years of decline, and an increase of 5-10% from the Russian market is expected for next year.During the meetings, it was concluded that the current indicators of the upcoming season are currently positive and that the synergy of measures and activities of the Ministry of Tourism and the Croatian Tourist Board will certainly further contribute to the smooth running of the season and achieving the desired numerical result. It is also important to note that the CNTB recently published a new edition. “Market profiles” as well as key features of tourist traffic in major emitting markets which are a great source of important information from the market as well as the habits of tourists. Related news:CNTB ANNOUNCES NEW EDITION “MARKET PROFILES” FOR 2016FIND OUT THE KEY FEATURES OF TOURIST TRAFFIC IN MAJOR ISSUING MARKETSCALENDAR OF HOLIDAYS AND HOLIDAYS ON BROADCASTING MARKETS 2017last_img read more

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Public debate on the abolition of the pedestrian zone in Osijek!

first_imgIn Osijek, a public debate will soon begin on the abolition of the pedestrian zone on the section through Kapucinska and across Ante Starčević Square in front of Name to Strossmayerova Street, ie the main square or Osijek’s Korzo.Namely, the Public debate on the proposal for Amendments to the Urban Development Plan of the center of Osijek will be open from Saturday, January 7, 2017. Before the opening of the Public Debate, the citizens of the town on the Drava were already clearly and loudly against the introduction of road traffic in the pedestrian zone, ie that the popular promenade should no longer be a pedestrian zone. “The City of Osijek does not favor any idea, ie it does not directly influence the opinion of citizens whether to take a position on whether the pedestrian zone should be abolished in the center or not, but it is not disputed how we question all possibilities to better regulate traffic. I publicly call on all those who are preparing for any fight against the City to give up on time because we are not forcing anything”Said Mayor Ivica Vrkić on his Facebook.Personally, I think this is a crazy idea, because the trend and need of all major and smart cities in Europe is to close the road, not only from the main squares but as far away from the city center, and not vice versa. However, as we in Croatia in the 21st century want to invest in fossil fuels, by buying the majority of INA shares from the Hungarians, while other countries are turning to green energy, we are rarely surprised by any more news.Photo: http://strangesounds.org/Thus Norway will ban all fossil fuel cars in the next 10 years in an effort to become one of the most environmentally progressive nations in the world, the Dutch government is considering introducing an innovative environmental law by which authorities intend to completely ban new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2025. From 2030, they want to sell only electric cars to Germany. My suggestion is that with the money planned for the purchase of INA shares, the State bought a stake in Rimac cars, it would certainly be more profitable in the long run.Also, many European cities are plagued by the problem of too much smog, from Paris, Rome, Stuttgart, Milan, London to Sarajevo. The use of fossil fuels in transport is detrimental to air quality and climate, I guess the birds on the branches already know that. This is due to CO emissions2 and harmful air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. In addition, road traffic is by far the largest source of noise in Europe. It is clear that the introduction of electric vehicles into the market can significantly reduce the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. Road traffic leaves the city center, not the other way around, and certainly the imperative of the future is on electricity, not fossil fuels. These are facts and trends, at least in Europe and the World, and we are constantly going in the wrong direction, no matter how much we want to be a part of that modern world.The public presentation of the plan proposal will be on Thursday, January 12, and information on the public hearing will be available on the city’s website. Osijek, as well as on spatial planning information system.  Citizens of Osijek, wake up and use your democratic right and express your opinion clearly and argumentatively through a public debate.Not on Facebook or over coffee, but at a public hearing.last_img read more

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Papuk received the first accommodation capacities, Camp-rest area Duboka was opened

first_imgCamping resort Duboka, located in the Papuk Nature Park, was ceremoniously opened to receive visitors, and the first to try it out were small football players from NK Velika and NK Čačinci.It is an investment worth 2,8 million kuna including VAT, and was financed through the PARCS project with a grant from the Global Environment Facility, whose beneficiary is the Ministry of Environment and Energy in cooperation with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Croatia.Camping resort Duboka is located in Velika, on the southern slopes of the Park, and covers an area of ​​8.000 m2 and has a total of 32 accommodation units with a capacity of up to 96 guests. Of that, 11 units are equipped with electrical and plumbing connections for camper vehicles. “Papuk Nature Park annually attracts about 150 to 200 thousand visitors, and all of them stayed in the park, due to lack of accommodation capacity, only one day. That is why we are investing more in this and all other parks than ever before in order to bring protected areas closer to visitors and inform them about natural values ​​and the importance of healthy ecosystems for humans, and help parks raise the level of visitor management and the protected area as a whole.”, Said Igor Kreitmeyer, Assistant Minister in the Ministry of Environment and Energy.Special attention during the construction of the camp-rest area was focused on the ecological approach to energy use and pollution prevention. Thus, solar panels for hot water, a biological wastewater treatment plant and a recycling yard for separate waste collection have been installed in the camp. Additionally, instead of asphalt for the base in the camp, a stone aggregate and a binder based on natural resins were used.”During the planning and implementation of the Duboka Camp Resort, special attention was paid to meeting high environmental standards and adapting the space for the disabled, including toilets. In addition to the Camp, last year we completed the energy reconstruction of the PP Papuk building here in Velika, with the aim of achieving a building with almost zero energy consumption. This investment amounted to 1,2 million kuna, and the certification of the building in energy class B shows that it is successful. I believe that these investments will contribute to improving the experience of visitors to the Park.”, Said Valentina Futač, PARCS project manager.In the camp-rest area there is a central service station where the office and reception are located, as well as toilets with running hot and cold drinking water. As the director of the Papuk Nature Park, Alen Jurenac, pointed out, the main goal of building the camp was to provide infrastructure that would serve to educate the local population, ie primarily to maintain multi-day schools in nature. In addition, the Park has not had accommodation capacity so far, so the Camp-rest area on Papuk will attract people who want to spend several days in this part of Croatia. He also reminded of the recently presented UNESCO Geopark Geopark project, worth more than 90 million kuna, which will include the construction of a multimedia Geo-info center in Voćin and an adrenaline park in Velika, as well as a Pannonian Sea house in Velika and a children’s playground.last_img read more

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Internet searches create illusion of personal knowledge, research finds

first_imgEmail Share on Facebook Pinterest Searching the Internet for information may make people feel smarter than they actually are, according to new research published by the American Psychological Association.“The Internet is such a powerful environment, where you can enter any question, and you basically have access to the world’s knowledge at your fingertips,” said lead researcher Matthew Fisher, a fourth-year doctoral candidate in psychology at Yale University. “It becomes easier to confuse your own knowledge with this external source. When people are truly on their own, they may be wildly inaccurate about how much they know and how dependent they are on the Internet.”In a series of experiments, participants who searched for information on the Internet believed they were more knowledgeable than a control group about topics unrelated to the online searches. In a result that surprised the researchers, participants had an inflated sense of their own knowledge after searching the Internet even when they couldn’t find the information they were looking for. After conducting Internet searches, participants also believed their brains were more active than the control group did. The research was published online in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. LinkedIncenter_img Share on Twitter Share For nine experiments, a range of 152 to 302 participants were recruited online, with different participants taking part in each experiment. In one experiment, the Internet group used online searches to research four questions (e.g., “How does a zipper work?”) and provided a website link with the best answer. The control group was given the exact text from the most common website used by the Internet group to answer the questions. Both groups then rated their ability to answer other questions (e.g., “Why are cloudy nights warmer?”) on topics unrelated to the Internet searches, although they didn’t have to answer those questions. The Internet group members consistently rated themselves as more knowledgeable than the control group about those unrelated topics.The Internet group reported an inflated sense of personal knowledge after Internet searches even when its members could not find complete answers to very difficult questions (e.g., “Why is ancient Kushite history more peaceful than Greek history?”) or when they found no answers at all because of Google filters that were used. The cognitive effects of “being in search mode” on the Internet may be so powerful that people still feel smarter even when their online searches reveal nothing, said study co-author Frank Keil, PhD, a psychology professor at Yale.In another experiment, participants who did online searches thought their brains would be more active than the control group, and they chose magnetic resonance images of a brain with more active areas highlighted as representative of their own brains. This result suggests that the participants searching the Internet believed they had more knowledge in their heads, rather than simply thinking they knew more because they had access to the Internet, Fisher said.The use of Internet searches, not just access to the Internet, appeared to inflate participants’ sense of personal knowledge. When the Internet group members were given a particular website link to answer questions, they didn’t report higher levels of personal knowledge on the unrelated topics than the control group.People must be actively engaged in research when they read a book or talk to an expert rather than searching the Internet, Fisher said. “If you don’t know the answer to a question, it’s very apparent to you that you don’t know, and it takes time and effort to find the answer,” he said. “With the Internet, the lines become blurry between what you know and what you think you know.”The growing use of smartphones may exacerbate this problem because an Internet search is always within reach, Keil said, and the effects may be more pronounced when children who are immersed in the Internet from an early age grow up to be adults.An inflated sense of personal knowledge also could be dangerous in the political realm or other areas involving high-stakes decisions, Fisher said.“In cases where decisions have big consequences, it could be important for people to distinguish their own knowledge and not assume they know something when they actually don’t,” he said. “The Internet is an enormous benefit in countless ways, but there may be some tradeoffs that aren’t immediately obvious and this may be one of them. Accurate personal knowledge is difficult to achieve, and the Internet may be making that task even harder.”last_img read more

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In pursuit of precision medicine for PTSD: Brain scans may eventually help tailor therapy

first_imgEmail Share on Facebook Share Pinterest LinkedIncenter_img “This is the holy grail for brain imaging,” says lead researcher Dr. K. Luan Phan, chief of neuropsychiatric research at the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Medical Center and professor of psychiatry at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “We hope in the future to be able to use scans to help distinguish PTSD from other illnesses, and then to predict how well someone will do with a certain medication, or with talk therapy. What we envision is being able to say to a patient, ‘Given your scan value, you have an X percent chance of getting better on this treatment.’”The approach, says Phan, will benefit patients and providers alike: “We’ll be saving a lot of resources on the clinical side, and more importantly, we’ll also not be wasting patients’ time sending them for a treatment that is not likely to help them.”His latest study included 34 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, half of them with PTSD. They all got functional MRI scans, which track blood flow in the brain to show which areas are using the most oxygen–a sign of increased activity.The researchers saw that among the PTSD group, who were all taking the drug paroxetine (sold as Paxil), the patients who showed the most improvement from the SSRI were those who showed the least activation, prior to treatment, of a brain area called the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, also known as the inferior frontal gyrus. The region is known to help with emotional regulation. It serves as a rational counterbalance to parts of the brain that generate raw emotion. It helps with tasks like impulse control, cognitive flexibility, and executive function. “These are all ingredients of emotional regulation,” says Phan.One nuance in the findings was that the brain area that appeared to predict response to SSRIs–the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex–was not the exact area that appeared to be affected by SSRI treatment. According to the fMRI scans, it was a related area–the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which has similar functions–along with another region called the supplementary motor area, that showed more activation after treatment.Phan explains: “It would be intuitive that something you’re trying to correct would also be the very same thing that would predict how well you do. But data from our lab and others suggest this isn’t always true. A mechanism of change could be different than a predictor of change. One area could change with treatment, but another area could predict your treatment response.”In any case, while the results need replication in larger trials, they point to a potential method to target drug therapy for PTSD patients.“Patients with the least recruitment of prefrontal emotion regulatory brain regions may benefit most from treatment with SSRIs, which appear to augment activity in these regions,” the researchers wrote. The first author was Annmarie MacNamara, a post-doctoral research fellow in Phan’s lab.Paroxetine and sertraline (Zoloft) are both part of the SSRI class of antidepressants. They are currently the only drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat PTSD. Another SSRI, fluoxetine (Prozac), also has evidence of effectiveness for PTSD, but it’s not yet approved for that purpose.Phan says the study was limited to patients using paroxetine, because while all SSRIs work similarly, there may be subtle differences among them, and the researchers wanted to control for this. He noted that some patients may respond well to one SSRI but not another.His lab is also involved in other efforts to tailor PTSD therapy based on brain patterns. In one VA-funded study, he is using a type of electroencephalography (EEG)–in which veterans wear an electrode-studded cap on their head–to trace brain patterns that may eventually serve as biomarkers. The research method is much less expensive and more portable than brain imaging–and it carries an added advantage for combat veterans, notes Phan.“Functional MRIs typically cost around $500, and they are often not tolerated well by our veterans,” he says. “It can be a very claustrophobic experience. You can feel trapped in the tube, in this dark, tight space. And there are loud random noises that many veterans have told me remind them of artillery fire.”Besides being distressing for the veterans, says Phan, this can all detract from the research: “It’s problematic on two fronts. It makes them move during the scan, which is not great for our science. Also, it may evoke different kinds of emotions that we’re not explicitly looking to test in the scanner. It induces a different emotional state that is hard to control for.”Phan is also collaborating on a multisite randomized, controlled clinical trial that is comparing different PTSD treatments. The team is looking at how each affects the brain and whether brain markers can predict response to a particular treatment.The trial began in 2011 with VA and Army funding and is still ongoing at three VA sites and at Massachusetts General Hospital. It has involved more than 400 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans with PTSD. Some are being treated with sertraline, and others with a type of psychotherapy called prolonged exposure therapy, which is one of the two main talk therapies used in VA for PTSD. Others in the study are receiving a combination of the two.Lead investigator Dr. Sheila Rauch, with the Atlanta VA Medical Center and Emory University, says it’s too early in the study to compare how each of the therapies affects the brain–that is, which precise regions get activated or calmed–but some clues may come from past work on depression.“Based on previous research on depression, we see some changes that are similar between treatments, but we also see distinct patterns,” says Rauch.She, like Phan, believes the scanning approach may eventually yield reliable biomarkers to guide PTSD treatment, but she says it will likely take several more years.“Within PTSD, this research is in the early stages,” she says. “We need larger studies that will allow replication and application to a treatment population,” and those generally take at least five years to implement and yield results, she says. “This is a marathon and not a sprint. Expecting an overhaul in the next couple of years is unrealistic, but I do think 10 years from now, PTSD care will be even more advanced and effective than it is today. We are moving in the right direction, but we are not there yet.” Share on Twitter Brain scans of war veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder have led researchers to an area of the prefrontal cortex that appears to be a good predictor of response to treatment with SSRIs–the first-line drug treatment for PTSD.The findings, which came out online June 26, 2015, in the journal Neuropsychopharmacology, are hopeful news amid a new national push toward “precision medicine,” in which doctors will tailor drug regimens and other treatments based on patients’ individual gene profiles or other factors. President Obama announced the initiative earlier this year.So far, though, little of this approach is in use in everyday psychiatry.last_img read more

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Social climbing makes the English happier than Americans

first_imgShare Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Pinterest People who grew up in a working class family are more satisfied in later life than those from a higher class background according to new research from The University of Manchester.The study by Dr Bram Vanhoutte and Professor James Nazroo, published in the Journal of Population Ageing, also found that English people who climb the social ladder are more content and happy when they get older than people in the States who are similarly upwardly mobile.The research sought to find out whether social mobility makes people happier in later life while taking into account people’s living conditions.center_img Email Dr Bram Vanhoutte said: “Everybody believes that in the US it is easier to climb the social ladder whereas in England there is less social mobility. There is some truth in that, while almost half of those born in a working class family will retire working class in England. This figure is only a third in the US.“We’ve discovered that English people who do manage to upgrade their social status substantially end up with a greater sense of autonomy and control. In America on the other hand, people who have risen in society’s ranks are less satisfied than those who haven’t, raising serious questions on the practical merits of living the American dream.”The study also suggests that growing up in a highly educated household in the US, does make a difference to the sense of happiness in later life.Following this research, the team will begin to investigate in more detail exactly how occupational careers and partner histories shape levels of wellbeing in later life. LinkedInlast_img read more

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Racial bias may be conveyed by doctors’ body language

first_imgShare on Facebook Dr. Barnato and her team recruited 33 hospital-based attending emergency medicine physicians, hospitalists and intensivists from Allegheny County, Pa., and put them in realistic simulations where actors portrayed dying black and white patients accompanied by a family member. The actors portrayed comparable medical conditions — plummeting vital signs related to either metastatic gastric or pancreatic cancer — and read from matching scripts. The physicians were unaware of what the trial was testing.University of Pittsburgh study shows physicians use different body language depending on patients’ race.The majority of the physicians were white men so the team could not derive any statistically significant conclusions about whether the physician’s race impacted his or her actions.Physicians were scored on a point system for both their verbal and nonverbal communication skills when interacting with the patient and family member. The physicians averaged 7 percent lower scores for their nonverbal interactions with the black patients than with the white patients.“When explaining what was happening and what the next steps for care could be, with the white patients, the physicians were more likely to stand right at the patient’s bedside and touch them in a sympathetic manner,” said Dr. Barnato.Dr. Barnato explained that something as simple as a physician staying near the door and holding a binder in front of them could be perceived by the patient and family as defensive or disengaged. This could lead to a cascade of misunderstandings that result in patients and their families requesting extraordinary life-saving measures because they don’t trust that the doctor has their best interests in mind when suggesting gentler, end-of-life care options.“When you survey people in the community about their feelings on end-of-life care, blacks are only slightly more likely than whites to say they want aggressive, life-sustaining measures when terminally ill,” said Dr. Barnato. “However, blacks are much more likely than whites to request such care when they are faced with making the decision in the hospital. Body language is a significant tool in building trust — or mistrust — and physicians need to ensure that their body language isn’t contributing to that decision. To help black patients and their families feel welcome and encouraged to be partners in medical decision-making, it is critical that doctors be aware of their verbal and nonverbal communication and any unintentional biases.” LinkedIn Pinterest Physicians give less compassionate nonverbal cues when treating seriously ill black patients compared with their white counterparts, a small University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine trial revealed. It is the first to look at such interactions in a time-pressured, end-of-life situation.The finding, published in the January issue of The Journal of Pain and Symptom Management, could be one reason blacks are far more likely to request extraordinary life-sustaining measures and report worse communication with their physicians.“Although we found that physicians said the same things to their black and white patients, communication is not just the spoken word. It also involves nonverbal cues, such as eye contact, body positioning and touch,” said senior author Amber Barnato, M.D., M.P.H., associate professor of clinical and translational medicine in Pitt’s School of Medicine. “Poor nonverbal communication — something the physician may not even be aware he or she is doing — could explain why many black patients perceive discrimination in the health care setting.”center_img Email Share Share on Twitterlast_img read more

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Where we live affects our bias against mixed-race individuals

first_imgShare Whites living in areas where they are less exposed to those of other races have a harder time categorizing mixed-race individuals than do Whites with greater interracial exposure, a condition that is associated with greater prejudice against mixed-race individuals, a new experimental study shows.For decades, research has shown that Whites with lower interracial exposure show greater prejudice against Blacks, but the new study finds they also show a greater prejudice against mixed-race individuals–the fastest growing racial group in the United States.“Our findings show that White individuals with lower interracial exposure tend to exhibit greater prejudice against mixed-race individuals,” explains Jonathan Freeman, an assistant professor in New York University’s Department of Psychology and the study’s lead author. “The results suggest that this bias arises in individuals with lower interracial exposure because they visually process racially ambiguous faces in a more difficult and unpredictable fashion, and this unstable experience translates into negative biases against mixed-race people.” The study’s other authors included Kristin Pauker, an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, and Diana Sanchez, an associate professor of psychology at Rutgers University.The research, which appears in the journal Psychological Science, considered two national samples totaling approximately 350 subjects. It determined subjects’ interracial exposure by matching Census data with their zip codes. To gauge subjects’ responses, the researchers relied on an innovative mouse-tracking technique that uses an individual’s hand movements to reveal unconscious cognitive processes. Unlike surveys, in which individuals can consciously alter their responses, this technique requires respondents to make split-second decisions about others where an unconscious–and more honest–preference can be uncovered through their hand-motion trajectory.In the first study, subjects had to rapidly categorize the race (White or Black) of computer-generated male faces that were morphed from White to mixed-race to Black while they were shown, one at a time, on a computer screen. Here, Whites living in areas with lower interracial exposure had a harder time categorizing the mixed-race faces than did those living in areas with greater interracial exposure–the former group showed more abrupt and unstable wavering while trying to place the face into a racial category, reflecting an uncertainty in its judgments. This unstable wavering was exclusive to race decisions and not observed in a control task, showing that it was not simply due to the way less-exposed individuals move their hands.In the second study, the researchers then considered the larger significance of this discrepancy. Here, subjects performed the same mouse-tracking task as before: they were shown a series of faces and asked to racially categorize what they viewed. In addition, these subjects were subsequently shown a series of new Black, White, and mixed-race faces. During this process, subjects were asked to judge how trustworthy they found each of these individuals to be.Similar to the first study, Whites living in neighborhoods with lower interracial exposure had a harder time categorizing mixed-race faces than did those living in areas with greater interracial exposure, as revealed by their unstable wavering. These less-exposed individuals also showed a greater prejudice against mixed-race individuals, and this prejudice was statistically explained by their more difficult and unstable visual processing of mixed-race faces.A final study conducted computational simulations with an artificial neural network, which suggested that in a system similar to a human brain, less interracial exposure would cause more unstable processing of mixed-race faces.“The simulations suggested that in less-exposed individuals, visual processing of a mixed-race face tries to bring together two categories in the brain–White and Black–that one’s conceptual knowledge is trying to rapidly pull apart due to these individuals’ stereotypes that Whites and Blacks are very dissimilar,” Freeman explains. “This conflict creates unstable processing that seems to prompt a negative bias against mixed-race individuals.”“Being in an environment with lower interracial exposure is associated with having more prejudice against mixed-race individuals, due in part to the brain’s more unstable processing of mixed-race faces,” observes Freeman. “Our findings suggest that, in certain cases, the basic visual processing of other people may serve as a foundation for social biases, such as racial prejudice. This research points to a unique perceptual pathway by which exposure to other racial groups may be able to get under the hood and reduce unintended biases.” LinkedIn Share on Facebookcenter_img Pinterest Email Share on Twitterlast_img read more

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Study: Divided parties rarely win presidential elections

first_imgShare on Facebook Share on Twitter Email Share Pinterestcenter_img Divided political parties rarely win presidential elections, according to a study by political science researchers at the University of Georgia and their co-authors. If the same holds true this year, the Republican Party could be in trouble this presidential general election.The study, which examined national party division in past presidential elections, found that both national party division and divisive state primaries have significant influence on general election outcomes.In this election cycle, the nominee of a divided Republican Party could lose more than 3 percent of the general election vote, compared to what he would have gained if the party were more united. LinkedIn “History shows that when one party is divided and the other party is united, the divided party almost always loses the presidential election,” said Paul-Henri Gurian, an associate professor of political science at UGA’s School of Public and International Affairs. “Consider, for example, the elections from 1964 through 1984; in each case the divided party lost.” The study measures party division during the primaries and indicates how much the more divided party loses in the general election.The study found that divisive state primaries can lead to a 1 to 2 percent decrease in general elections votes in that state. For example, Hillary Clinton received 71 percent of the Democratic vote in the Georgia primary, while Donald Trump received 39 percent of the Republican vote. According to the historical model, a Republican-nominated Trump would lose almost 1 percent of the Georgia vote in the general election because of the divided state primary.National party division has an even greater and more widespread impact on the national results, often leading to decreases of more than 3 percent nationwide.Looking again at the current presidential election cycle, Trump had received 39.5 percent of the total national Republican primary vote as of March 16, while Clinton had received 58.6 percent of the Democratic vote. If these proportions hold for the remainder of the nomination campaign (and if these two candidates win the nominations), then Trump would lose 4.5 percent of the vote in the general election, compared to what he would have received if the national Republican Party was not divided.“In close elections, such as 2000, 2004 and 2012, 4-5 percent could change the outcome in terms of which party wins the presidency,” Gurian said.The results of this study provide political analysts with a way to anticipate the impact of each primary and, more importantly, the impact of the total national primary vote on the general election results. Subtracting the percent of the Republican nominee’s total popular vote from that of the Democratic nominee and multiplying that by 0.237 indicates how much the Republican nominee is likely to lose in the November election, compared to what would otherwise be expected. The 4.5 percent figure calculated through March 16 can be updated as additional states hold their primaries. (The same can be done for each individual state primary by multiplying by 0.026.)last_img read more

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As more states legalize marijuana, adolescents’ problems with pot decline

first_imgLinkedIn Share Pinterest Share on Twitter A survey of more than 216,000 adolescents from all 50 states indicates the number of teens with marijuana-related problems is declining. Similarly, the rates of marijuana use by young people are falling despite the fact more U.S. states are legalizing or decriminalizing marijuana use and the number of adults using the drug has increased.Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis examined data on drug use collected from young people, ages 12 to 17, over a 12-year span. They found that the number of adolescents who had problems related to marijuana — such as becoming dependent on the drug or having trouble in school and in relationships — declined by 24 percent from 2002 to 2013.Over the same period, kids, when asked whether they had used pot in the previous 12 months, reported fewer instances of marijuana use in 2013 than their peers had reported in 2002. In all, the rate fell by 10 percent.center_img Email Share on Facebook Those drops were accompanied by reductions in behavioral problems, including fighting, property crimes and selling drugs. The researchers found that the two trends are connected. As kids became less likely to engage in problem behaviors, they also became less likely to have problems with marijuana.The study’s first author, Richard A. Grucza, PhD, an associate professor of psychiatry, explained that those behavioral problems often are signs of childhood psychiatric disorders.“We were surprised to see substantial declines in marijuana use and abuse,” he said. “We don’t know how legalization is affecting young marijuana users, but it could be that many kids with behavioral problems are more likely to get treatment earlier in childhood, making them less likely to turn to pot during adolescence. But whatever is happening with these behavioral issues, it seems to be outweighing any effects of marijuana decriminalization.”The new study is published in the June issue of the Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.The data was gathered as part of a confidential, computerized study called the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. It surveys young people from different racial, ethnic and income groups in all 50 states about their drug use, abuse and dependence.In 2002, just over 16 percent of those 12 to 17 reported using marijuana during the previous year. That number fell to below 14 percent by 2013. Meanwhile, the percentage of young people with marijuana-use disorders declined from around 4 percent to about 3 percent.At the same time, the number of kids in the study who reported having serious behavior problems — such as getting into fights, shoplifting, bringing weapons to school or selling drugs — also declined over the 12-year study period.“Other research shows that psychiatric disorders earlier in childhood are strong predictors of marijuana use later on,” Grucza said. “So it’s likely that if these disruptive behaviors are recognized earlier in life, we may be able to deliver therapies that will help prevent marijuana problems — and possibly problems with alcohol and other drugs, too.”last_img read more

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